Trends of Rainfall Variability and Drought Monitoring Using Standardized Precipitation Index in a Scarcely Gauged Basin of Northern Pakistan
نویسندگان
چکیده
This study focused on the trends of rainfall variability and drought monitoring in northern region Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan). Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) model data were used for period 1981 to 2020. The Standardized Index (SPI) was applied assess dry wet conditions during period. Mann–Kendall (MK) Spearman’s rho (SR) trend tests calculate drought. A coupled intercomparison project–global circulation (CMIP5–GCMs) project future precipitation Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) 21st century using a multimodel ensemble (MME) technique representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 RCP 8.5. From results, extreme situations observed 12-month SPI series 1982 Diamir, Ghizer, Gilgit districts, while severe 1982–1983 Astore, Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, Skardu. Similarly, 2000–2001 prevailed Ghanche, results MK SR indicate significant increasing area, which is showing conversion snowfall due climate warming. projections depicted an increase 4% as compared baseline GB region. midcentury about 13%, latter half recorded decrease (about 9%) both RCPs, can cause flooding century. area host major glaciers from where Indus River receives its tributaries. volume these are decreasing warming impacts change. Therefore, this useful proper water resource management cope up scarcity future.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Water
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2073-4441']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/w14071132